He who pays the Piper
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It is an accepted adage that “He who pays the piper, calls the tune”.
Generally, one would listen to a piper’s repertoire and playing ability prior to employing him and would then feel free to choose from that repertoire during his period of employment.
Politics isn’t like that – you choose the whole band on the basis that they tell you what they intend to play – regardless of what they actually can or do play – and they choose the piper, regardless of his playing ability. You as the employer have no say in the matter until they, the band, decide to leave. (or until their five year contract is up).
Well, for the British government, that five years is almost up. Their music hasn’t been particularly good, they have lied and cheated and few people are likely ever to employ this particular piper again – not even his own band…
So, we might reasonably expect that the present band – complete with their flawed piper – will be given their marching orders by the electorate.
That said, you might expect that the only other big band available for this particular gig – the Conservative Party – would be a shoe-in.
Is that actually likely?
For the Conservatives to win an overall majority at the next general election will require one of the biggest swings in UK electoral history – certainly in the last 100 years. Not impossible but a massive task given that the electoral system is heavily biased against them.
Why so? Simply because the electoral boundary system favours urban areas far more so than rural areas where the Conservatives have traditionally drawn their support. There have been some changes in these boundaries since the last general election which will marginally help the Conservatives, but they still require an overal swing of around 9% – 10% to win a very small majority. Fact is, it still requires many more Conservative voters to elect an MP than it does Labour voters.
The expenses scandal has resulted in many MP’s deciding not to present themselves for re-election – perhaps wisely so – which means there will be many new faces at the hustings. How this will play out is one of the big questions. The other of course is how many people believe the system is now so tainted that they will not bother to vote.
Of course, some people will always vote for ‘their’ party. This favours Labour because many in the old industrial regions would walk on hot coals before they would vote Conservative whereas natural Conservative voters will often vote for a candidate rather than a party. Likewise, many who have grown up on a culture of benefit and sickness payments may feel too threatened by the possibility of change to consider a Conservative step into the unknown.
What about the Lib Dems and the fringe parties? Probably the Lib Dems will hold their core vote but there is no sign that they are building on it, while parties like UKIP and the BNP are in a much stronger position to attract traditional Labour voters who want to make a protest, but one without rocking the boat too much.
Do those fringe votes matter? If the election is close then they may well hold the balance of power. Is that what the voters want?
The other factor which may effect the result is the voting power of the ‘new’ immigrant (bearing in mind that some are now third generation citizens). Despite the perceptions of some on the far Left and Right, they are just as concerned about uncontroled immigration, poor education and social policing as any ‘White’ Briton. The way they vote may have a very profound effect on the composition of the next government.
So, an election too close to call? Perhaps not, but if results are close then the UK will end up with a weak government which will fall apart within the first six months. Does anyone want an ‘Italian’ or ‘Israeli’ style of back room deals and a concensus which suits the powerful?
If a “week is a long time in politics” then the next five months may seem like a lifetime.
Swan song for the lonely piper?
November 22nd, 2009 at 11:16 pm
Thank you for that I thought it was an excellent piece of writing and completely accurate.
I’m one who would walk over hot coals rather than vote Conservative but I won’t vote Labour this time.
November 26th, 2009 at 11:48 am
Politics for fourth formers in my opinion.
The ‘fringe’ parties you speak of as possibly ‘holding the balance of power’
well they’d have to win some seats first and that would be almost impossible from the present position. The likeliest fringe winner is Nigel Farrage who is contesting the new ‘Speaker’ John Bercow’s seat – if things hang in the balance to the extent of one seat making a difference then we really will have a hung Parliament.
The electorate in Britain has seldom ‘called the tune’ . Some of those that bother to turn up merely look at the pre-performance programme – the ensuing concert is almost always dominated by events, dear boy – and to continue the musical analogy , they rock and roll with it until the next time.
The Overtures often fizzle out as the wheels of Governance slowly turn.
Half of the half who do vote do so on grounds of loyalty, the state of their lives both personal and financial at the time, and prejudice against those they perceive to be not of their ilk.
The system is out of tune and flawed, but it’s as good as many others. The fact that there might be little to choose between the parties this time is a sorry commentary on their imagination and their boldness.
I await a Lib-Dem call for total withdrawal from Afghanistan – and quickly – to see if they might pull something from the blandness of the fire which smoulders at the heart , and in the hearth of British politics.
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